UD Ourense vs Merida AD kick-off time: 14/11/2026 15:30
Match info
Last 5 matches
More- UD OurenseWLLLW
- Merida ADLDWWW
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
UD Ourense and Merida AD meet on in Primera Federación – Group 1.
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Scoreno
- Statisticsno
- Line-upsyes
- Pitch animationno
- Pressure datano
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Merida AD (41%).
Chances to win
Model estimate
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Preview
UD Ourense vs Merida AD: preview
UD Ourense have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. 4 of UD Ourense's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 3. Merida AD have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. 5 of Merida AD's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 4.
Our pre-match model estimate: UD Ourense 30%, draw 29%, Merida AD 41%.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsModel simulation (20,000 runs): UD Ourense win in 30% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Merida AD win 41%. Average goals 2.1; the most likely score is 0-1 (14%); both teams score in 42%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
