Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC vs Esteghlal FC: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
69' — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC took the lead: 1-0. Mateus Lima scored it. 84' — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC extended the lead: 2-0. Juan Alvina Bezerra scored it. After 91' the momentum swung to Esteghlal FC. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FCDrawEsteghlal FC
Pre-match model estimate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC 51%, draw 26%, Esteghlal FC 23%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FCEsteghlal FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3969
Last 15 min6066
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC win in 51% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Esteghlal FC win 23%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 48%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC – Esteghlal FC match report
It was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC 0-0 Esteghlal FC at half-time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC took the lead on 69 minutes thanks to Mateus Lima, set up by Sardar Azmoun. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC extended their lead to 2-0 on 84 minutes thanks to Juan Alvina Bezerra, set up by Sardar Azmoun. Esteghlal FC took over after the 91st minute, pinning Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC back.
Match statistics
On target it was 6-1, from 6 and 6 attempts respectively.
What it means
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC have now won 5 in a row. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FC ended Esteghlal FC's unbeaten run of 11 matches.
Coming up
Esteghlal FC's next match is at home against Shams Azar on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
AFC Champions League Elite, West Region
