Daejeon Citizen FC vs Vissel Kobe: the story of the match
Vissel Kobe started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
83' — Vissel Kobe took the lead: 0-1. Ren Komatsu scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to Daejeon Citizen FC. Vissel Kobe won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Daejeon Citizen FCDrawVissel Kobe
Pre-match model estimate: Daejeon Citizen FC 41%, draw 26%, Vissel Kobe 33%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Daejeon Citizen FCVissel Kobe
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9512
Last 15 min8571
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Daejeon Citizen FC win in 41% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Vissel Kobe win 33%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 53%. About 9.8 corners on average.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Vissel Kobe, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Half-time: 0-0 between Daejeon Citizen FC and Vissel Kobe.
Daejeon Citizen FC took over after the 46th minute, pinning Vissel Kobe back. Vissel Kobe took the lead in the 83rd minute: Ren Komatsu, set up by Gotoku Sakai.
The statistics
The shot count read 9-3, 5-2 on target. Daejeon Citizen FC won 7 corners, Vissel Kobe 2. 7 saves came from the Vissel Kobe goalkeeper. Daejeon Citizen FC produced 223 dangerous attacks to Vissel Kobe's 150.
The bigger picture
Daejeon Citizen FC drop from 7th to 9th on 4 points. The result lifts Vissel Kobe to 1st with 9 points, up from 4th. Vissel Kobe ended Daejeon Citizen FC's unbeaten run of 9 matches.
AFC Champions League Elite, West Region
