Al Shamal SC vs Al Hilal Riyadh: the story of the match
Al Shamal SC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 8' — Al Shamal SC took the lead: 1-0. Wesley Saïd scored it. 32' — Al Hilal Riyadh equalised: 1-1. Salem Al-Dawsari scored it. Half time: 1-1, with Al Shamal SC applying more of the pressure.
49' — Al Shamal SC went back in front: 2-1. Baghdad Bounedjah scored it. 54' — Al Shamal SC extended the lead: 3-1. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to Al Hilal Riyadh. Al Shamal SC won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Al Shamal SCDrawAl Hilal Riyadh
Pre-match model estimate: Al Shamal SC 26%, draw 22%, Al Hilal Riyadh 52%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Al Shamal SCAl Hilal Riyadh
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3978
Last 15 min8088
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Al Shamal SC win in 26% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Al Hilal Riyadh win 52%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Al Shamal SC, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Al Shamal SC took the lead in the 8th minute: Wesley Saïd, set up by Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane. Al Hilal Riyadh drew level at 1-1 in the 32nd minute: Salem Al-Dawsari, set up by Theo Hernández. The first half ended 1-1, with Al Shamal SC the side applying more pressure.
Al Shamal SC went 2-1 up on 49 minutes thanks to Baghdad Bounedjah. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane made it 3-1 for Al Shamal SC after 54 minutes, set up by Riyad Mahrez. Al Hilal Riyadh took over after the 61st minute, pinning Al Shamal SC back.
The statistics
The shot count read 7-4, 4-4 on target. Al Shamal SC produced 214 dangerous attacks to Al Hilal Riyadh's 164.
The bigger picture
Al Shamal SC end a run of 4 matches without a win. The result ends Al Hilal Riyadh's run of 6 straight wins.
Coming up
Al Shamal SC's next match is away to Al Sadd SC Doha on 30 October. Al Hilal Riyadh host Al Fateh SC next, on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
AFC Champions League Elite, West Region
