Portland Timbers vs Charlotte FC: the story of the match
3' — Charlotte FC took the lead: 0-1. Pep Biel scored it. 11' — Portland Timbers equalised: 1-1. Ariel Lassiter scored it. 40' — Portland Timbers completed the turnaround: 2-1. Ariel Lassiter scored it. Half time: 2-1.
69' — Charlotte FC equalised: 2-2. Idan Toklomati scored it. 90' — Portland Timbers completed the turnaround: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. Portland Timbers won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Portland TimbersDrawCharlotte FC
Pre-match model estimate: Portland Timbers 47%, draw 21%, Charlotte FC 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Portland Timbers win in 47% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Charlotte FC win 32%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Charlotte FC took the lead on 3 minutes thanks to Pep Biel, set up by Ashley Westwood. Portland Timbers drew level at 1-1 on 11 minutes thanks to Ariel Lassiter, set up by Eric Izoita. Portland Timbers completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 40th minute: Ariel Lassiter, set up by Eric Izoita. Half-time: 2-1, Portland Timbers in front.
Charlotte FC drew level at 2-2 on 69 minutes thanks to Idan Toklomati, set up by Luca de la Torre. Late on, in the 90th minute, Portland Timbers completed the turnaround at 3-2.
Match statistics
Portland Timbers had 17 shots (7 on target) to Charlotte FC's 4 (3). Portland Timbers won 9 corners, Charlotte FC 3. 8 saves came from the Charlotte FC goalkeeper. Portland Timbers produced 197 dangerous attacks to Charlotte FC's 96.
The bigger picture
Portland Timbers end a run of 7 matches without a win. Charlotte FC have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Portland Timbers visit St Louis City SC next, on 29 October in MLS. Next up for Charlotte FC: home to CF Montreal on Wednesday 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
MLS
