Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
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Prediction missed
We had a Harju JK Laagri win as the most likely outcome; the match went another way.
✗ Harju JK Laagri 55%✗ Most likely score 1-2
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Narva Trans won 3-1.
Story
Narva Trans vs Harju JK Laagri: the story of the match
1' — Narva Trans took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
58' — Harju JK Laagri had a player sent off. 63' — Narva Trans extended the lead: 2-0. 75' — Narva Trans extended the lead: 3-0. 82' — Harju JK Laagri pulled one back: 3-1. Narva Trans won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Narva TransDrawHarju JK Laagri
Pre-match model estimate: Narva Trans 24%, draw 21%, Harju JK Laagri 55%.
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Narva TransKick-off0-0Harju JK Laagri
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Narva Trans win in 24% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Harju JK Laagri win 55%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 63%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Harju JK Laagri went down 3-1 to Narva Trans in the Premium Liiga. The half-time score was 1-0. Saturday 7 November, Narva Kalev-Fama staadion: Narva Trans against Harju JK Laagri on matchday 36, kick-off 10:30.
How the match unfolded
Narva Trans took the lead on 1 minutes. Narva Trans led 1-0 at the break.
Harju JK Laagri had a player sent off on 58 minutes. Just 5 minutes later (63') Narva Trans extended their lead to 2-0. Narva Trans extended their lead to 3-0 on 75 minutes. Harju JK Laagri pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 82 minutes.
Match statistics
The shot count read 13-2, 11-2 on target. Expected goals (xG) 1.54 – 0.17: Narva Trans created the better chances. A red card for Harju JK Laagri and 5 yellows made it a bad-tempered match. Fouls: 20 by Narva Trans, 8 by Harju JK Laagri; offsides 3-0.
The context
The table had Narva Trans 10th (20 points) and Harju JK Laagri 6th (47 points) going into the game. Before kick-off, Narva Trans' last 5 matches had brought 5 defeats. Narva Trans lost 2-0 away to FC Flora Tallinn in their last match. Harju JK Laagri came into the match with 3 wins and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches — scoring in 7 straight games. Tartu JK Tammeka beat Harju JK Laagri 2-1 last time out. The record between them over the last 10 matches reads 4-0-6 from Narva Trans' point of view. When they last met, on 10 July 2026, Harju JK Laagri won 3-0. There have been 32 goals in the 10 meetings, 3.2 a game. Referee R. Maalinn showed 5 yellow cards and 1 red.
What the result means
Narva Trans stay 10th on 23 points. Harju JK Laagri remain 6th, now with 47 points. Narva Trans end a run of 11 matches without a win. Harju JK Laagri have now scored in 8 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
