Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Narva Trans
D. Pareiko
A. Ivanyushin
S. Kondrattsev
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
A. Filatov
Y. Betancor
S. Agaptsev
B. Irie
T. Berardozzi
A. Gero
Nomme United
G. Purg
R. Chanda
S. Geiger
M. Miil
A. Alteberg
A. Frolov
K. Oostenbrink
H. Jarvelaid
Z. Beglarishvili
A. Torres
E. Ounapuu
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Nomme United won 0-1.
Story
Narva Trans vs Nomme United: the story of the match
39' — Nomme United took the lead: 0-1. E. Ounapuu scored it. Half time: 0-1.
87' — S. Kondrattsev of Narva Trans was sent off. Nomme United won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Narva TransDrawNomme United
Pre-match model estimate: Narva Trans 25%, draw 21%, Nomme United 54%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Narva Trans win in 25% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Nomme United win 54%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 65%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
