Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Maidenhead United and Horsham FC drew 1-1 in National League South.
Venue: York Road.
In our records Maidenhead United and Horsham FC have met 3 times: Maidenhead United won 2, 0 ended level and Horsham FC won 1.
Their latest meeting (): Horsham FC 1-2 Maidenhead United.
Match details
Venue
York Road, Maidenhead
Match decisions & VAR
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 1-1.
Story
Maidenhead United vs Horsham FC: the story of the match
Maidenhead United started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 5' — Horsham FC took the lead: 0-1. 10' — Maidenhead United equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1, with Maidenhead United applying more of the pressure.
After 61' the momentum swung to Horsham FC. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Maidenhead UnitedDrawHorsham FC
Pre-match model estimate: Maidenhead United 44%, draw 24%, Horsham FC 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Maidenhead UnitedHorsham FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min063
Last 15 min5746
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Maidenhead United win in 44% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Horsham FC win 32%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Maidenhead United started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Horsham FC took the lead on 5 minutes. Maidenhead United drew level at 1-1 on 10 minutes. The first half ended 1-1, with Maidenhead United the side applying more pressure.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Horsham FC.
The statistics
Maidenhead United had 7 shots (4 on target) to Horsham FC's 7 (4). Corners finished 6-12.
The bigger picture
Maidenhead United remain 18th, now with 14 points. Horsham FC climb from 13th to 12th on 19 points. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for Maidenhead United. Horsham FC are now unbeaten in 4 matches. Across 4 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Maidenhead United, 1 win for Horsham FC and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
National League South
