This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): LDU Quito win in 58% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and CSD Macara win 17%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CSD Macara took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Franco Posse. Half-time: 0-1, CSD Macara in front.
LDU Quito drew level at 1-1 in the 74th minute: Jesús Pretell. CSD Macara went 2-1 up in the 75th minute: Mateo Viera.
Match statistics
The shot count read 11-8, 5-6 on target. LDU Quito won 7 corners, CSD Macara 3.
The bigger picture
The result takes LDU Quito to 46 points. CSD Macara move on to 54 points. CSD Macara ended LDU Quito's unbeaten run of 5 matches. CSD Macara have now won 5 in a row.
Serie A, Relegation Round
