Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Itumbiara GO beat AA Rioverdense 2-1 in Campeonato Goiano 3.Division.
Match decisions & VAR
41'Penalty awardedItumbiara GODecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Itumbiara GO won 2-1.
Story
Itumbiara GO vs AA Rioverdense: the story of the match
Itumbiara GO started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 43' — Itumbiara GO took the lead: 1-0. 45' — Itumbiara GO extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0, with Itumbiara GO applying more of the pressure.
90' — AA Rioverdense pulled one back: 2-1. It came in the closing minutes. Itumbiara GO won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Itumbiara GODrawAA Rioverdense
Pre-match model estimate: Itumbiara GO 75%, draw 14%, AA Rioverdense 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Itumbiara GOAA Rioverdense
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9375
Last 15 min8375
Recorded from minute 3.
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Itumbiara GO win in 75% of the simulated matches, 14% end level and AA Rioverdense win 11%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 2-0 (10%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Itumbiara GO started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Itumbiara GO took the lead on 43 minutes. Itumbiara GO extended their lead to 2-0 on 45 minutes. Itumbiara GO led 2-0 at the break.
Late on, in the 90th minute, AA Rioverdense pulled one back to make it 2-1.
The statistics
The shot count read 15-7, 11-3 on target. Corners finished 11-6. AA Rioverdense's goalkeeper made 10 saves. Dangerous attacks: 284 for Itumbiara GO, 112 for AA Rioverdense.
What the result means
Itumbiara GO move on to 6 points. The result takes AA Rioverdense to 0 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
