6' — AC Oulu took the lead: 0-1. M. Pitkänen scored it. 10' — AC Oulu extended the lead: 0-2. I. Mendolin scored it. 22' — IF Gnistan pulled one back: 1-2. S. Eremenko scored it. 45' — AC Oulu extended the lead: 1-3. An own goal by O. Virtanen. Half time: 1-3.
51' — IF Gnistan pulled one back: 2-3. A. Jouhi scored it. 85' — AC Oulu extended the lead: 2-4. L. Ghezali scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — IF Gnistan pulled one back: 3-4. A. Jouhi scored it. It came in the closing minutes. AC Oulu won 3-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
IF GnistanDrawAC Oulu
Pre-match model estimate: IF Gnistan 50%, draw 23%, AC Oulu 27%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): IF Gnistan win in 50% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and AC Oulu win 27%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 60%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AC Oulu took the lead in the 6th minute: M. Pitkänen. AC Oulu extended their lead to 2-0 on 10 minutes thanks to I. Mendolin, set up by R. Karjalainen. IF Gnistan pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 22nd minute: S. Eremenko. AC Oulu extended their lead to 3-1 on 45 minutes thanks to an own goal from O. Virtanen. Half-time: 1-3, AC Oulu in front.
IF Gnistan pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 51st minute: A. Jouhi, set up by S. Ylätupa. AC Oulu extended their lead to 4-2 in the 85th minute: L. Ghezali, set up by R. Riski. A. Jouhi reduced the deficit for IF Gnistan to 3-4 after 90 minutes.
Match statistics
IF Gnistan won 5 corners, AC Oulu 9.
The bigger picture
The result takes IF Gnistan to 36 points. AC Oulu move on to 37 points. IF Gnistan have now gone 5 matches without a win. AC Oulu have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
What’s next
IF Gnistan's next match is away to KuPS Kuopio on 29 October. AC Oulu host VPS next, on 28 October in the Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round
