Hartlepool United vs Hornchurch FC: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
46' — Hornchurch FC took the lead: 0-1. Ángelo Balanta scored it. 68' — Neo Eccleston of Hartlepool United was sent off. 72' — Hartlepool United equalised: 1-1. William Harris scored it. 80' — Hartlepool United completed the turnaround: 2-1. Luke Charman scored it. Hartlepool United won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Hartlepool UnitedDrawHornchurch FC
Pre-match model estimate: Hartlepool United 47%, draw 25%, Hornchurch FC 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Hartlepool United win in 47% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Hornchurch FC win 28%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Hartlepool United and Hornchurch FC.
Hornchurch FC took the lead in the 46th minute: Ángelo Balanta. Hartlepool United had a player sent off on 68 minutes: Neo Eccleston. Hartlepool United had a goal ruled out in the 69th minute. Hartlepool United drew level at 1-1 on 72 minutes thanks to William Harris. Hartlepool United completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 80th minute: Luke Charman.
What the numbers say
On target it was 4-2, from 4 and 7 attempts respectively. Hartlepool United won 5 corners, Hornchurch FC 12. Hornchurch FC produced 218 dangerous attacks to Hartlepool United's 190.
What the result means
Hartlepool United ended Hornchurch FC's unbeaten run of 3 matches.
National League
