Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
58' — Exeter City took the lead: 1-0. Charlie Cummins scored it. 61' — Fleetwood Town equalised: 1-1. Ronan Coughlan scored it. 64' — Exeter City went back in front: 2-1. Luca Woodhouse scored it. Exeter City won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Exeter CityDrawFleetwood Town
Pre-match model estimate: Exeter City 39%, draw 27%, Fleetwood Town 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Exeter City win in 39% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Fleetwood Town win 34%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 49%. About 10.1 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Exeter City and Fleetwood Town.
Exeter City took the lead in the 58th minute: Charlie Cummins. Fleetwood Town drew level at 1-1 on 61 minutes thanks to Ronan Coughlan. Luca Woodhouse put Exeter City 2-1 ahead after 64 minutes.
The statistics
Exeter City had 7 shots (3 on target) to Fleetwood Town's 8 (4). Exeter City won 5 corners, Fleetwood Town 5. Fleetwood Town produced 58 dangerous attacks to Exeter City's 37.
What the result means
The result lifts Exeter City to 8th with 19 points, up from 10th. Fleetwood Town stay 18th on 14 points. Exeter City's run of 3 clean sheets is over. Fleetwood Town have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. It is Exeter City's first win against Fleetwood Town since 2022.
Coming up
Next up for Exeter City: away at Salford City on Saturday 31 October. Fleetwood Town's next match is at home against Bristol Rovers on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
League Two
