Gillingham vs Grimsby Town: the story of the match
6' — Grimsby Town took the lead: 0-1. Harvey Rodgers scored it. 37' — Gillingham equalised: 1-1. Ronan Hale scored it. Half time: 1-1.
54' — Grimsby Town went back in front: 1-2. Iwan Morgan scored from the penalty spot. 63' — Grimsby Town extended the lead: 1-3. Géza Dávid Turi scored it. 70' — Grimsby Town extended the lead: 1-4. Sonny Finch scored it. Grimsby Town won 1-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
GillinghamDrawGrimsby Town
Pre-match model estimate: Gillingham 30%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 45%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Gillingham win in 30% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Grimsby Town win 45%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Harvey Rodgers opened the scoring for Grimsby Town after 6 minutes. Ronan Hale equalised for Gillingham at 1-1 after 37 minutes. Half-time: 1-1 between Gillingham and Grimsby Town.
Grimsby Town went 2-1 up in the 54th minute: Iwan Morgan from the penalty spot. Grimsby Town extended their lead to 3-1 on 63 minutes thanks to Géza Dávid Turi. Grimsby Town extended their lead to 4-1 in the 70th minute: Sonny Finch.
The statistics
On target it was 2-6, from 2 and 11 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-6.
The bigger picture
Gillingham have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. A 7-game wait for victory is over for Grimsby Town.
What’s next
Gillingham host Barrow AFC next, on 7 November. Next up for Grimsby Town: away at Stafford Rangers FC on Sunday 8 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
