Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: CD Lugo won 0-1.
Story
CP Cacereno vs CD Lugo: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 18' — CD Lugo took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
CD Lugo won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CP CacerenoDrawCD Lugo
Pre-match model estimate: CP Cacereno 40%, draw 27%, CD Lugo 33%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
CP CacerenoCD Lugo
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min380
Last 15 min150
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2 (no dangerous-attack data for this match).
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CP Cacereno win in 40% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and CD Lugo win 33%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 50%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 26%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Primera Federacion, Group 2
