Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: the story of the match
14' — Arminia Bielefeld took the lead: 0-1. An own goal by Hiroki Sekine. Half time: 0-1.
76' — Holstein Kiel equalised: 1-1. Hiroki Sekine scored it. 80' — Arminia Bielefeld went back in front: 1-2. Isaiah Young scored it. Arminia Bielefeld won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Holstein KielDrawArminia Bielefeld
Pre-match model estimate: Holstein Kiel 40%, draw 27%, Arminia Bielefeld 33%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Holstein Kiel win in 40% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Arminia Bielefeld win 33%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 51%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Arminia Bielefeld took the lead in the 14th minute: an own goal from Hiroki Sekine. Holstein Kiel had a goal ruled out in the 28th minute. It was Holstein Kiel 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld at half-time.
VAR awarded Arminia Bielefeld a penalty in the 58th minute. Holstein Kiel drew level at 1-1 in the 76th minute: Hiroki Sekine. Arminia Bielefeld went 2-1 up in the 80th minute: Isaiah Young.
Match statistics
Holstein Kiel had 9 shots (6 on target) to Arminia Bielefeld's 4 (4). Holstein Kiel won 6 corners, Arminia Bielefeld 5. 5 saves came from the Arminia Bielefeld goalkeeper. Holstein Kiel produced 202 dangerous attacks to Arminia Bielefeld's 92.
What the result means
Holstein Kiel drop from 17th to 18th on 8 points. The result lifts Arminia Bielefeld to 6th with 17 points, up from 7th.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
