Chapecoense SC vs Fluminense: the story of the match
12' — Chapecoense SC took the lead: 1-0. Yannick Bolasie scored it. 30' — Fluminense equalised: 1-1. Guga scored it. Half time: 1-1.
56' — Chapecoense SC went back in front: 2-1. Giovanni Augusto scored it. Chapecoense SC won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Chapecoense SCDrawFluminense
Pre-match model estimate: Chapecoense SC 20%, draw 23%, Fluminense 57%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Chapecoense SC win in 20% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Fluminense win 57%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 0-1 (11%); both teams score in 52%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Yannick Bolasie opened the scoring for Chapecoense SC after 12 minutes. The officials disallowed a Chapecoense SC goal on 28 minutes. Fluminense drew level at 1-1 on 30 minutes thanks to Guga, set up by Hulk. Half-time: 1-1 between Chapecoense SC and Fluminense.
Chapecoense SC went 2-1 up in the 56th minute: Giovanni Augusto.
The statistics
Corners finished 3-6. Dangerous attacks: 54 for Fluminense, 36 for Chapecoense SC.
What it means
Chapecoense SC remain 20th, now with 21 points. Fluminense stay 5th on 51 points. A 5-game wait for victory is over for Chapecoense SC. Fluminense have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Next up for Chapecoense SC: away at RB Bragantino on Wednesday 28 October. Fluminense's next match is at home against SC Internacional on 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
