EC Vitoria BA vs CA Paranaense: the story of the match
23' — CA Paranaense took the lead: 0-1. An own goal by Jamerson. 29' — EC Vitoria BA equalised: 1-1. Renato Kayzer scored it. Half time: 1-1.
95' — Marinho of EC Vitoria BA was sent off. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
EC Vitoria BADrawCA Paranaense
Pre-match model estimate: EC Vitoria BA 39%, draw 26%, CA Paranaense 35%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): EC Vitoria BA win in 39% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and CA Paranaense win 35%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%. About 10.8 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CA Paranaense took the lead on 23 minutes thanks to an own goal from Jamerson. EC Vitoria BA drew level at 1-1 in the 29th minute: Renato Kayzer, set up by Emanuel Britez. Half-time: 1-1 between EC Vitoria BA and CA Paranaense.
Marinho saw a straight red card in the 95th minute, leaving EC Vitoria BA short-handed.
Match statistics
On target it was 5-2, from 7 and 7 attempts respectively. Corners finished 3-5. Dangerous attacks: 46 for EC Vitoria BA, 31 for CA Paranaense.
The bigger picture
EC Vitoria BA have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. Across 6 meetings in our records: 2 wins for EC Vitoria BA, 3 wins for CA Paranaense and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
