CR Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians SP: the story of the match
35' — CR Vasco da Gama took the lead: 1-0. José Luis Rodríguez scored it. Half time: 1-0.
50' — Corinthians SP equalised: 1-1. Gustavo Henrique scored it. 57' — Corinthians SP completed the turnaround: 1-2. Matheus Bidu scored it. 88' — CR Vasco da Gama equalised: 2-2. Marino Hinestroza scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — CR Vasco da Gama completed the turnaround: 3-2. Marino Hinestroza scored it. It came in the closing minutes. CR Vasco da Gama won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CR Vasco da GamaDrawCorinthians SP
Pre-match model estimate: CR Vasco da Gama 58%, draw 24%, Corinthians SP 18%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CR Vasco da Gama win in 58% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Corinthians SP win 18%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 47%. About 11.1 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CR Vasco da Gama took the lead on 35 minutes thanks to José Luis Rodríguez. CR Vasco da Gama led 1-0 at the break.
Corinthians SP drew level at 1-1 in the 50th minute: Gustavo Henrique, set up by Breno Bidon. Corinthians SP completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 57 minutes thanks to Matheus Bidu, set up by Fabrizio Angileri. Marino Hinestroza equalised for CR Vasco da Gama at 2-2 after 88 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, CR Vasco da Gama completed the turnaround at 3-2 through Marino Hinestroza, set up by David.
The statistics
On target it was 8-4, from 17 and 7 attempts respectively. CR Vasco da Gama won 3 corners, Corinthians SP 3. CR Vasco da Gama produced 69 dangerous attacks to Corinthians SP's 38.
What the result means
The result lifts CR Vasco da Gama to 13th with 38 points, up from 15th. Corinthians SP drop from 16th to 18th on 33 points. Corinthians SP have now gone 11 matches without a win.
Next fixtures
Next up for CR Vasco da Gama: home to Regatas Flamengo RJ on Thursday 29 October. Corinthians SP's next match is at home against Mirassol FC on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
