CD Leones Del Norte vs FC Libertad: the story of the match
31' — CD Leones Del Norte took the lead: 1-0. Martín Caramuto scored it. 38' — FC Libertad equalised: 1-1. Vilinton Branda scored it. Half time: 1-1.
59' — CD Leones Del Norte went back in front: 2-1. Martín Caramuto scored it. 61' — CD Leones Del Norte extended the lead: 3-1. Patricio Madero scored it. 90' — CD Leones Del Norte extended the lead: 4-1. It came in the closing minutes. CD Leones Del Norte won 4-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD Leones Del NorteDrawFC Libertad
Pre-match model estimate: CD Leones Del Norte 48%, draw 26%, FC Libertad 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Leones Del Norte win in 48% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and FC Libertad win 26%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Leones Del Norte took the lead on 31 minutes thanks to Martín Caramuto. FC Libertad drew level at 1-1 in the 38th minute: Vilinton Branda. Half-time: 1-1 between CD Leones Del Norte and FC Libertad.
CD Leones Del Norte went 2-1 up in the 59th minute: Martín Caramuto. Patricio Madero made it 3-1 for CD Leones Del Norte after 61 minutes. FC Libertad had a goal ruled out in the 79th minute. Late on, in the 90th minute, CD Leones Del Norte extended their lead to 4-1.
The statistics
CD Leones Del Norte had 19 shots (4 on target) to FC Libertad's 14 (6). CD Leones Del Norte won 5 corners, FC Libertad 4. CD Leones Del Norte produced 56 dangerous attacks to FC Libertad's 40.
The bigger picture
The result takes CD Leones Del Norte to 42 points. FC Libertad move on to 41 points. CD Leones Del Norte end a run of 5 matches without a win. The result ends FC Libertad's run of 3 straight wins.
What’s next
CD Leones Del Norte's next match is away to CS Emelec on 31 October. FC Libertad visit Guayaquil City FC next, on 1 November in Serie A, Relegation Round.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A, Relegation Round
