One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
CD IncaKick-off0-0CD Aguila
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals CD Inca 0.9 – 2.1 CD Aguila. Most frequent scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Both teams score in 52% of the simulated matches. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 28%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
CD IncaCD Aguila
CD Aguila: the stronger side on our resultsAGstrong
CD Inca: home advantage in this competitionINstrong
Also considered
CD Inca: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
CD Aguila: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
CD Inca: in the drop zone; 2 matches left
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards CD Aguila.
Table by result
CD Inca12
A win can lift them as high as 10.
Win10–11Draw11Loss11–12
CD Aguila4
A win can lift them as high as 3.
Win3–4Draw4Loss4
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
In the table, CD Inca sit 12th with 17 points and CD Aguila are 4th with 31 points. CD Inca trail CD Aguila by 14 points.
In 4th, CD Aguila trail top spot by 9 points.
Form guide
CD IncaLDLLLCD AguilaDLWWD
Over the last 5 matches, CD Inca have collected 1 draw and 4 defeats. CD Inca are winless in 7. At home, CD Inca have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 6-9. Across 10 matches, CD Inca have scored 0.9 and let in 1.8 goals per match on average.
Recent form for CD Aguila: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 5, with 12 goals for and 10 against. CD Aguila have found the net in 8 straight games. CD Aguila's recent away record reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Goals have flowed in CD Aguila's games: 7 of the last 10 produced at least three.
Live on ScoreMondo
Follow CD Inca v CD Aguila live on ScoreMondo: the live score, the line-ups, the statistics and every key event as it happens.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Apertura
