Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 19' — Botafogo took the lead: 1-0. Edenilson scored it. Half time: 1-0, with Atletico MG applying more of the pressure.
After 61' the momentum swung to Botafogo. After 76' the momentum swung to Atletico MG. Botafogo won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BotafogoDrawAtletico MG
Pre-match model estimate: Botafogo 38%, draw 28%, Atletico MG 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
BotafogoAtletico MG
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1222
Last 15 min1525
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Botafogo win in 38% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and Atletico MG win 34%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 50%. About 12.2 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Edenilson opened the scoring for Botafogo after 19 minutes, set up by Vitinho. It was Botafogo 1-0 Atletico MG at half-time; Atletico MG had the better of the pressure.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Botafogo. Atletico MG took over after the 76th minute, pinning Botafogo back.
The statistics
The shot count read 4-6, 3-4 on target. Corners finished 4-4. Dangerous attacks: 43 for Atletico MG, 28 for Botafogo.
The bigger picture
Botafogo climb from 12th to 11th on 42 points. Atletico MG remain 7th, now with 50 points. Atletico MG have lost 5 in a row.
Brasileiro Serie A
