47' — Atalanta took the lead: 0-1. Ederson scored it. 89' — AS Roma equalised: 1-1. M. Hermoso scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — AS Roma completed the turnaround: 2-1. M. Soule scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 97' — G. Gaetano of Atalanta was sent off. AS Roma won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AS RomaDrawAtalanta
Pre-match model estimate: AS Roma 59%, draw 22%, Atalanta 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Atalanta let a lead slip and lost 2-1 to AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico.
The story of the match
The first half ended 0-0.
Atalanta took the lead in the 47th minute: Ederson. Late on, in the 89th minute, AS Roma drew level at 1-1 through M. Hermoso, set up by M. Soule. AS Roma completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 90th minute: M. Soule, set up by P. Dybala. G. Gaetano saw a straight red card in the 97th minute, leaving Atalanta short-handed.
What it means
Atalanta's winning streak stops at 3. AS Roma had not beaten Atalanta in any of the previous 4 meetings we have.
Serie A
