Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913: the story of the match
41' — Parma Calcio 1913 took the lead: 0-1. Giovanni Fabbian scored it. Half time: 0-1.
47' — Parma Calcio 1913 extended the lead: 0-2. An own goal by Davide Zappacosta. 58' — Parma Calcio 1913 extended the lead: 0-3. Simone Lontani scored it. Parma Calcio 1913 won 0-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AtalantaDrawParma Calcio 1913
Pre-match model estimate: Atalanta 65%, draw 20%, Parma Calcio 1913 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Atalanta win in 65% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Parma Calcio 1913 win 15%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 50%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 3-0 rout: Parma Calcio 1913 swept Atalanta aside at New Balance Arena. The half-time score was 0-1.
Key moments
Parma Calcio 1913 took the lead on 41 minutes thanks to Giovanni Fabbian, set up by Vincent Sierro. It was Atalanta 0-1 Parma Calcio 1913 at half-time.
Parma Calcio 1913 extended their lead to 2-0 in the 47th minute: an own goal from Davide Zappacosta. Parma Calcio 1913 extended their lead to 3-0 in the 58th minute: Simone Lontani, set up by Giovanni Fabbian.
The statistics
Atalanta had 23 shots (6 on target) to Parma Calcio 1913's 6 (3). Atalanta won 8 corners, Parma Calcio 1913 4. Atalanta produced 109 dangerous attacks to Parma Calcio 1913's 19.
What it means
Atalanta have now gone 5 matches without a win. Parma Calcio 1913 end a run of 5 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
