7' — HJK Helsinki took the lead: 0-1. M. Borchers scored it. 34' — HJK Helsinki extended the lead: 0-2. S. Haarala scored it. 43' — HJK Helsinki extended the lead: 0-3. Alfie Cicale scored it. Half time: 0-3.
54' — HJK Helsinki extended the lead: 0-4. S. Haarala scored it. HJK Helsinki won 0-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
VPSDrawHJK Helsinki
Pre-match model estimate: VPS 15%, draw 18%, HJK Helsinki 67%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): VPS win in 15% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and HJK Helsinki win 67%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 0-2 (10%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
HJK Helsinki took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to M. Borchers. HJK Helsinki extended their lead to 2-0 on 34 minutes thanks to S. Haarala. HJK Helsinki extended their lead to 3-0 on 43 minutes thanks to Alfie Cicale. Half-time: 0-3, HJK Helsinki in front.
HJK Helsinki had a goal ruled out in the 54th minute. HJK Helsinki extended their lead to 4-0 in the 54th minute: S. Haarala, set up by P. Mentu.
The statistics
VPS had 3 shots (2 on target) to HJK Helsinki's 13 (4). VPS won 2 corners, HJK Helsinki 5.
The bigger picture
The result takes VPS to 33 points. HJK Helsinki move on to 40 points. VPS have now gone 4 matches without a win. HJK Helsinki extend their unbeaten run to 9 matches.
Next fixtures
VPS visit IF Gnistan next, on 8 November in the Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round. Next up for HJK Helsinki: home to AC Oulu on Sunday 8 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round
