38' — Valencia took the lead: 1-0. Pepelu scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-0.
69' — Villarreal equalised: 1-1. Alex Freeman scored it. 79' — Pape Gueye of Villarreal was sent off. 89' — Harvey Elliott of Valencia was sent off. 90' — Villarreal completed the turnaround: 1-2. It came in the closing minutes. Villarreal won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ValenciaDrawVillarreal
Pre-match model estimate: Valencia 31%, draw 24%, Villarreal 45%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Valencia win in 31% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Villarreal win 45%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 57%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Valencia – Villarreal match report
Updated:
Valencia let a lead slip and lost 2-1 to Villarreal at Mestalla Stadium.
The story of the match
Valencia took the lead in the 38th minute: Pepelu from the penalty spot. It was Valencia 1-0 Villarreal at half-time.
The officials disallowed a Valencia goal on 57 minutes. Valencia had a goal ruled out in the 61st minute. Alex Freeman equalised for Villarreal at 1-1 after 69 minutes, set up by Sergi Cardona. Pape Gueye saw a straight red card in the 79th minute, leaving Villarreal short-handed. Valencia had a player sent off on 89 minutes: Harvey Elliott.
Just 1 minutes later (90') Villarreal completed the turnaround at 2-1.
The statistics
Corners finished 6-9. Dangerous attacks: 104 for Villarreal, 59 for Valencia.
What the result means
Valencia remain 19th, now with 6 points. Villarreal climb from 12th to 10th on 12 points. The wait for a win goes on for Valencia: 4 matches now.
Next fixtures
Next up for Valencia: away at UE Tavernes on Wednesday 28 October. Villarreal's next match is at home against Espanyol on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
LaLiga
