USC Paredes vs CD Trofense: the story of the match
8' — USC Paredes took the lead: 1-0. Erik scored it. 20' — USC Paredes extended the lead: 2-0. D. Rodrigues scored it. 42' — USC Paredes extended the lead: 3-0. Miguel scored it. Half time: 3-0.
72' — USC Paredes extended the lead: 4-0. Miguel scored it. USC Paredes won 4-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
USC ParedesDrawCD Trofense
Pre-match model estimate: USC Paredes 64%, draw 21%, CD Trofense 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): USC Paredes win in 64% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and CD Trofense win 15%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 47%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 4-0 rout: USC Paredes swept CD Trofense aside at Municipal das Laranjeiras. USC Paredes owed a lot to Miguel, who struck twice. It was 3-0 at half-time.
Key moments
USC Paredes took the lead in the 8th minute: Erik, set up by P. Araujo. USC Paredes extended their lead to 2-0 on 20 minutes thanks to D. Rodrigues, set up by F. Almara. USC Paredes extended their lead to 3-0 on 42 minutes thanks to Miguel, set up by F. Almara. It was USC Paredes 3-0 CD Trofense at half-time.
USC Paredes extended their lead to 4-0 on 72 minutes thanks to Miguel, set up by Vasco Rocha.
The statistics
The shot count read 6-3, 3-1 on target. Corners finished 7-5. Dangerous attacks: 162 for USC Paredes, 69 for CD Trofense.
What it means
USC Paredes are now unbeaten in 7 matches. The wait for a win goes on for CD Trofense: 5 matches now. USC Paredes beat CD Trofense for the first time since 2019.
Liga 3, Group B
