Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 23' — TOP Oss took the lead: 1-0. Maurilio De Lannoy scored it. Half time: 1-0.
58' — Waalwijk equalised: 1-1. Jesse Van De Haar scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to Waalwijk. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
TOP OssDrawWaalwijk
Pre-match model estimate: TOP Oss 25%, draw 22%, Waalwijk 53%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
TOP OssWaalwijk
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3838
Last 15 min1515
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2 (no dangerous-attack data for this match).
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): TOP Oss win in 25% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Waalwijk win 53%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%. About 11.4 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Neither TOP Oss nor Waalwijk could find a winner in a 1-1 draw. The half-time score was 1-0.
How the match unfolded
TOP Oss took the lead on 23 minutes thanks to Maurilio De Lannoy. It was TOP Oss 1-0 Waalwijk at half-time.
Waalwijk drew level at 1-1 in the 58th minute: Jesse Van De Haar. Waalwijk took over after the 61st minute, pinning TOP Oss back. TOP Oss had a goal ruled out in the 67th minute.
Match statistics
TOP Oss won 5 corners, Waalwijk 8.
What it means
TOP Oss drop from 15th to 16th on 14 points. The result lifts Waalwijk to 11th with 17 points, up from 12th. Waalwijk have now gone 8 matches without a win. Across 11 meetings in our records: 1 win for TOP Oss, 6 wins for Waalwijk and 4 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eerste Divisie
