SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 15' — Independiente del Valle took the lead: 0-1. Mateo Carabajal scored it. 37' — Independiente del Valle extended the lead: 0-2. Carlos González scored it. 41' — SD Aucas pulled one back: 1-2. Santiago Morales scored it. 45' — Independiente del Valle extended the lead: 1-3. Junior Sornoza scored it. Half time: 1-3.
62' — Independiente del Valle extended the lead: 1-4. Junior Sornoza scored it. 90' — SD Aucas pulled one back: 2-4. Michael Carcelen scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to SD Aucas. Independiente del Valle won 2-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SD AucasDrawIndependiente del Valle
Pre-match model estimate: SD Aucas 20%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle 54%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
SD AucasIndependiente del Valle
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min530
Last 15 min448
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SD Aucas win in 20% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Independiente del Valle win 54%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 0-1 (16%); both teams score in 41%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Independiente del Valle took the lead on 15 minutes thanks to Mateo Carabajal. Carlos González made it 2-0 for Independiente del Valle after 37 minutes. Santiago Morales reduced the deficit for SD Aucas to 1-2 after 41 minutes. Just 4 minutes later (45') Independiente del Valle extended their lead to 3-1, Junior Sornoza on target. Independiente del Valle led 3-1 at the break.
SD Aucas took over after the 46th minute, pinning Independiente del Valle back. Independiente del Valle extended their lead to 4-1 on 62 minutes thanks to Junior Sornoza. Late on, in the 90th minute, SD Aucas pulled one back to make it 2-4 through Michael Carcelen.
What the numbers say
SD Aucas won 7 corners, Independiente del Valle 4.
What it means
The result takes SD Aucas to 50 points. Independiente del Valle move on to 77 points. Independiente del Valle have now won 4 in a row.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A, Relegation Round
