32' — Santa Clara took the lead: 1-0. Fernando scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-0.
62' — SL Benfica equalised: 1-1. Vangelis Pavlidis scored it. 68' — SL Benfica completed the turnaround: 1-2. Gianluca Prestianni scored it. SL Benfica won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Santa ClaraDrawSL Benfica
Pre-match model estimate: Santa Clara 11%, draw 18%, SL Benfica 71%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Santa Clara win in 11% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and SL Benfica win 71%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 0-2 (12%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Santa Clara took the lead on 32 minutes thanks to Fernando from the penalty spot. Half-time: 1-0, Santa Clara in front.
Santa Clara had a goal ruled out in the 46th minute. SL Benfica drew level at 1-1 in the 62nd minute: Vangelis Pavlidis, set up by Gianluca Prestianni. SL Benfica completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 68 minutes thanks to Gianluca Prestianni.
The statistics
On target it was 6-3, from 10 and 15 attempts respectively.
What the result means
Santa Clara stay 4th on 18 points. SL Benfica remain 2nd, now with 22 points. SL Benfica have now won 4 in a row.
Liga Portugal
