Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: RFC Seraing won 3-1.
Story
RFC Seraing vs Royal Excelsior Virton: the story of the match
22' — RFC Seraing took the lead: 1-0. 38' — Royal Excelsior Virton equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
56' — RFC Seraing went back in front: 2-1. 90' — RFC Seraing extended the lead: 3-1. It came in the closing minutes. RFC Seraing won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
RFC SeraingDrawRoyal Excelsior Virton
Pre-match model estimate: RFC Seraing 40%, draw 25%, Royal Excelsior Virton 35%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): RFC Seraing win in 40% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Royal Excelsior Virton win 35%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
RFC Seraing took the lead on 22 minutes. Royal Excelsior Virton drew level at 1-1 on 38 minutes. Half-time: 1-1 between RFC Seraing and Royal Excelsior Virton.
RFC Seraing went 2-1 up on 56 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, RFC Seraing extended their lead to 3-1. Royal Excelsior Virton had a goal ruled out in the 94th minute.
What it means
The result lifts RFC Seraing to 13th with 5 points, up from 14th. Royal Excelsior Virton drop from 6th to 7th on 10 points. It is RFC Seraing's first win against Royal Excelsior Virton since 2016.
Next fixtures
Next up for RFC Seraing: home to RFC Liege on Friday 30 October. Royal Excelsior Virton's next match is away to KAS Eupen on 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Challenger Pro League
