Regatas Flamengo RJ vs Atletico MG: the story of the match
Regatas Flamengo RJ started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 7' — Atletico MG took the lead: 0-1. Bernard scored it. 34' — Regatas Flamengo RJ equalised: 1-1. Gonzalo Plata scored it. 41' — Regatas Flamengo RJ completed the turnaround: 2-1. Giorgian de Arrascaeta scored it. Half time: 2-1, with Regatas Flamengo RJ applying more of the pressure.
60' — Atletico MG equalised: 2-2. Renan Lodi scored it. 90' — Regatas Flamengo RJ completed the turnaround: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. Regatas Flamengo RJ won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Regatas Flamengo RJAtletico MG
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5322
Last 15 min5525
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Regatas Flamengo RJ win in 77% of the simulated matches, 15% end level and Atletico MG win 8%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 2-0 (14%); both teams score in 44%. About 11.5 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Regatas Flamengo RJ started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Atletico MG took the lead in the 7th minute: Bernard, set up by Ángelo Preciado. Gonzalo Plata equalised for Regatas Flamengo RJ at 1-1 after 34 minutes, set up by Guillermo Varela. Giorgian de Arrascaeta turned the game around for Regatas Flamengo RJ at 2-1 after 41 minutes, set up by Samuel Lino. It was Regatas Flamengo RJ 2-1 Atletico MG at half-time; Regatas Flamengo RJ had the better of the pressure.
The officials disallowed a Regatas Flamengo RJ goal on 55 minutes. Just 5 minutes later (60') Atletico MG drew level at 2-2, Renan Lodi on target. Atletico MG had a goal ruled out in the 72nd minute. Late on, in the 90th minute, Regatas Flamengo RJ completed the turnaround at 3-2. Regatas Flamengo RJ had a goal ruled out.
Regatas Flamengo RJ had a goal ruled out.
Match statistics
The shot count read 16-3, 10-3 on target. Corners finished 14-0. Dangerous attacks: 94 for Regatas Flamengo RJ, 33 for Atletico MG.
What it means
Regatas Flamengo RJ climb from 2nd to 1st on 70 points. Atletico MG remain 6th, now with 50 points. Regatas Flamengo RJ's run of 4 clean sheets is over.
Next fixtures
Regatas Flamengo RJ visit CR Vasco da Gama next, on 29 October in the Brasileiro Serie A. Next up for Atletico MG: home to Cruzeiro EC on Thursday 29 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
