Coritiba vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with Coritiba applying more of the pressure.
90' — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense took the lead: 0-1. Martin Braithwaite scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Gremio FB Porto Alegrense. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense won 0-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CoritibaDrawGremio FB Porto Alegrense
Pre-match model estimate: Coritiba 44%, draw 25%, Gremio FB Porto Alegrense 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
CoritibaGremio FB Porto Alegrense
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3171
Last 15 min1960
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Coritiba win in 44% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Gremio FB Porto Alegrense win 31%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%. About 11.4 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Coritiba and Gremio FB Porto Alegrense.
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense took over after the 46th minute, pinning Coritiba back. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense took the lead in the 90th minute: Martin Braithwaite.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 5-5, 4-3 on target. Coritiba won 5 corners, Gremio FB Porto Alegrense 10.
What it means
Coritiba stay 12th on 39 points. The result lifts Gremio FB Porto Alegrense to 17th with 34 points, up from 18th. Coritiba have now gone 7 matches without a win. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense end a run of 7 matches without a win.
Coming up
Next up for Coritiba: home to EC Vitoria BA on Saturday 31 October. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense's next match is at home against CA Paranaense on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
