Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
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Prediction missed
We had a CD Extremadura win as the most likely outcome; the match went another way.
✗ CD Extremadura 40%✗ Most likely score 0-1
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Real Aviles CF won 5-2.
Story
Real Aviles CF vs CD Extremadura: the story of the match
15' — Real Aviles CF took the lead: 1-0. 31' — CD Extremadura equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
54' — CD Extremadura had a player sent off. 56' — Real Aviles CF went back in front: 2-1. 79' — CD Extremadura equalised: 2-2. 85' — Real Aviles CF went back in front: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Real Aviles CF extended the lead: 4-2. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Real Aviles CF extended the lead: 5-2. It came in the closing minutes. Real Aviles CF won 5-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Real Aviles CFDrawCD Extremadura
Pre-match model estimate: Real Aviles CF 36%, draw 24%, CD Extremadura 40%.
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Real Aviles CF win in 36% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and CD Extremadura win 40%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 5.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 26%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Real Aviles CF took the lead on 15 minutes. CD Extremadura drew level at 1-1 on 31 minutes. A CD Extremadura goal stood after a VAR check in the 32nd minute. It was Real Aviles CF 1-1 CD Extremadura at half-time.
After a review on 54 minutes, Real Aviles CF were given a penalty. CD Extremadura were a man down from the 54th minute. Just 2 minutes later (56') Real Aviles CF went 2-1 up. CD Extremadura drew level at 2-2 on 79 minutes. Late on, in the 85th minute, Real Aviles CF went 3-2 up.
Real Aviles CF extended their lead to 4-2 on 90 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Real Aviles CF extended their lead to 5-2. VAR checked and confirmed the Real Aviles CF goal on 103 minutes.
Match statistics
By our xG model, Real Aviles CF's chances were worth 1.82 goals and CD Extremadura's 1.21. Corners finished 3-3. The referee showed 7 yellow cards, 4 to Real Aviles CF and 3 to CD Extremadura, and a red. Dangerous attacks: 119 for Real Aviles CF, 96 for CD Extremadura.
The bigger picture
Real Aviles CF climb from 9th to 4th on 17 points. CD Extremadura slip to 7th (16 points), having started the day 5th. Real Aviles CF have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. CD Extremadura's 6-match unbeaten run is over.
Primera Federacion, Group 2
