Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Potenza Calcio beat SSC Bari 2-1 in Coppa Italia Serie C, Knockout stage.
Venue: Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani.
Match decisions & VAR
16'Review overVAR review · incidentDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Potenza Calcio won 2-1.
Story
Potenza Calcio vs SSC Bari: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 23' — Potenza Calcio took the lead: 1-0. 35' — Potenza Calcio extended the lead: 2-0. 44' — SSC Bari pulled one back: 2-1. Half time: 2-1.
After 46' the momentum swung to Potenza Calcio. Potenza Calcio won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Potenza CalcioDrawSSC Bari
Pre-match model estimate: Potenza Calcio 43%, draw 26%, SSC Bari 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Potenza CalcioSSC Bari
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min4622
Last 15 min4942
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Potenza Calcio win in 43% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and SSC Bari win 31%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Potenza Calcio took the lead on 23 minutes. Potenza Calcio extended their lead to 2-0 on 35 minutes. SSC Bari pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 44 minutes. Half-time: 2-1, Potenza Calcio in front.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Potenza Calcio.
Match statistics
On target it was 4-3, from 5 and 5 attempts respectively. Corners finished 6-3.
The bigger picture
Potenza Calcio are now unbeaten in 8 matches. SSC Bari's 3-match unbeaten run is over.
Coming up
Next up for Potenza Calcio: home to FC Crotone on Sunday 1 November. SSC Bari's next match is at home against US Scafatese Calcio on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Coppa Italia Serie C, Knockout stage
