6' — Millwall took the lead: 0-1. Jenson Metcalfe scored it. 16' — Portsmouth equalised: 1-1. An own goal by Lyndon Dykes. Half time: 1-1.
83' — Portsmouth completed the turnaround: 2-1. Thomas Waddingham scored it. Portsmouth won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
PortsmouthDrawMillwall
Pre-match model estimate: Portsmouth 40%, draw 26%, Millwall 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Portsmouth win in 40% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Millwall win 34%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 51%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Portsmouth – Millwall match report
Updated:
Millwall let a lead slip and lost 2-1 to Portsmouth at Fratton Park. The attendance at Fratton Park was 20,476.
Key moments
Millwall took the lead in the 6th minute: Jenson Metcalfe. Portsmouth drew level at 1-1 in the 16th minute: an own goal from Lyndon Dykes. The first half ended 1-1.
Portsmouth completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 83 minutes thanks to Thomas Waddingham.
What the numbers say
Portsmouth had 5 shots (3 on target) to Millwall's 6 (1). Corners finished 5-5.
What it means
Portsmouth climb from 13th to 11th on 18 points. Millwall slip to 13th (15 points), having started the day 12th. Portsmouth are now unbeaten in 4 matches.
Next fixtures
Next up for Portsmouth: away at Burnley on Saturday 31 October. Millwall's next match is at home against Derby County on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
English League Championship
