Cardiff City vs Birmingham City: the story of the match
32' — Cardiff City took the lead: 1-0. Yousef Salech scored it. Half time: 1-0.
Cardiff City won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Cardiff CityDrawBirmingham City
Pre-match model estimate: Cardiff City 37%, draw 24%, Birmingham City 39%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cardiff City win in 37% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Birmingham City win 39%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 61%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 21%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Yousef Salech opened the scoring for Cardiff City after 32 minutes. It was Cardiff City 1-0 Birmingham City at half-time.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 12-3, 4-2 on target. Corners finished 3-3. Dangerous attacks: 52 for Cardiff City, 30 for Birmingham City.
What the result means
Cardiff City climb from 19th to 16th on 14 points. Birmingham City slip to 7th (20 points), having started the day 4th. Cardiff City have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. Birmingham City's 5-match unbeaten run is over.
Next fixtures
Next up for Cardiff City: away at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday 31 October. Birmingham City's next match is away to Lincoln City on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
English League Championship
