Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC: the story of the match
5' — Newcastle Jets took the lead: 1-0. Xavier Bertoncello scored it. Half time: 1-0.
70' — Macarthur FC equalised: 1-1. Musa Toure scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Newcastle JetsDrawMacarthur FC
Pre-match model estimate: Newcastle Jets 48%, draw 22%, Macarthur FC 30%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Newcastle Jets win in 48% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Macarthur FC win 30%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 67%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Newcastle Jets took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to Xavier Bertoncello, set up by Daniel Wilmering. Newcastle Jets led 1-0 at the break.
Macarthur FC drew level at 1-1 in the 70th minute: Musa Toure, set up by Ryan Fraser.
What the numbers say
Newcastle Jets had 4 shots (3 on target) to Macarthur FC's 3 (2). Newcastle Jets won 7 corners, Macarthur FC 5. Newcastle Jets produced 137 dangerous attacks to Macarthur FC's 99.
What the result means
Newcastle Jets drop from 4th to 7th on 2 points. Macarthur FC stay 3rd on 4 points. Newcastle Jets have now gone 7 matches without a win.
A-League
