One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
MSV DuisburgKick-off0-0VfB Stuttgart II
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): MSV Duisburg win in 67% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and VfB Stuttgart II win 15%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Goals scored per match: 1.9Goals conceded per match: 1.9
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 3-3.
Story
MSV Duisburg vs VfB Stuttgart II: the story of the match
5' — MSV Duisburg took the lead: 1-0. L. Lobinger scored it. 8' — MSV Duisburg extended the lead: 2-0. A. Casar scored it. 11' — MSV Duisburg extended the lead: 3-0. L. Lobinger scored it. 39' — T. Fleckstein of MSV Duisburg was sent off. 40' — VfB Stuttgart II pulled one back: 3-1. A. Groiß scored it. Half time: 3-1.
73' — VfB Stuttgart II pulled one back: 3-2. T. van der Leij scored from the penalty spot. 90' — VfB Stuttgart II equalised: 3-3. Eliot Bujupi scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 3-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
MSV DuisburgDrawVfB Stuttgart II
Pre-match model estimate: MSV Duisburg 67%, draw 18%, VfB Stuttgart II 15%.
MSV Duisburg and VfB Stuttgart II shared the points in a 3-3 draw in the 3. Liga. L. Lobinger scored twice for MSV Duisburg. The half-time score was 3-1. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to MSV Duisburg's L. Lobinger: 8.0. Saturday 31 October, MSV-Arena (Duisburg): MSV Duisburg against VfB Stuttgart II on matchday 12, kick-off 13:00.
Key moments
MSV Duisburg took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to L. Lobinger, set up by C. Noß. MSV Duisburg extended their lead to 2-0 on 8 minutes thanks to A. Casar, set up by C. Coşkun. MSV Duisburg extended their lead to 3-0 on 11 minutes thanks to L. Lobinger, set up by D. Kother. MSV Duisburg had a goal ruled out in the 33rd minute. MSV Duisburg had a player sent off on 39 minutes: T. Fleckstein.
A. Groiß reduced the deficit for VfB Stuttgart II to 3-1 after 40 minutes. Half-time: 3-1, MSV Duisburg in front.
VfB Stuttgart II pulled one back to make it 3-2 on 73 minutes thanks to T. van der Leij from the penalty spot. Late on, in the 90th minute, VfB Stuttgart II drew level at 3-3 through Eliot Bujupi.
Match statistics
MSV Duisburg had 5 shots (2 on target) to VfB Stuttgart II's 5 (4). MSV Duisburg won 3 corners, VfB Stuttgart II 3. Cards: 3-4 in yellows, plus a red card for MSV Duisburg. VfB Stuttgart II produced 94 dangerous attacks to MSV Duisburg's 59. Fouls: 11 by MSV Duisburg, 13 by VfB Stuttgart II; offsides 1-1.
Booked for MSV Duisburg: A. Casar (70'), R. Bulić (72') and C. Coşkun (85'). VfB Stuttgart II's yellow cards went to Oliver Rölke in the 27th minute, Joyeux Masanka Bungi in the 37th minute, V. Stange in the 65th minute and J. Luers in the 79th minute.
The players
Behind him, A. Groiß at 7.0, Eliot Bujupi at 7.0 and A. Casar at 6.7 were next in the ScoreMondo ratings. MSV Duisburg made 5 changes: F. Christensen for D. Kother (45'), Martin Ens for C. Noß (65'), P. Remmert for L. Lobinger (65') and M. Besuschkow for A. Casar (85'). From the VfB Stuttgart II bench came J. Luers on 45 minutes, E. Yigit on 45 minutes, Eliot Bujupi on 45 minutes and A. Janjic on 70 minutes.
How they came into it
Before kick-off, MSV Duisburg's last 5 matches had brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. MSV Duisburg lost 2-1 away to FC Ingolstadt 04 in their last match. VfB Stuttgart II came into the match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches — scoring in 9 straight games. Alemannia Aachen beat VfB Stuttgart II 2-1 last time out. When they last met, on 18 January 2026, MSV Duisburg won 4-0. There have been 14 goals in the 6 meetings, 2.3 a game. Referee M. Wilke showed 7 yellow cards and 1 red; the average in our records is 4.9 yellows per game over 23 matches.
What the result means
MSV Duisburg have now scored in 11 consecutive matches. VfB Stuttgart II have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. Across 7 meetings in our records: 3 wins for MSV Duisburg and 4 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
