Montpellier vs Red Star FC: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with Montpellier applying more of the pressure.
47' — Montpellier took the lead: 1-0. Laciné Megnan Pave scored it. 51' — Red Star FC equalised: 1-1. Saif-Eddine Khaoui scored it. 70' — Dylan Durivaux of Red Star FC was sent off. 88' — Montpellier went back in front: 2-1. Mamadou Camara scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Red Star FC. After 76' the momentum swung to Montpellier. After 91' the momentum swung to Red Star FC. Montpellier won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
MontpellierDrawRed Star FC
Pre-match model estimate: Montpellier 44%, draw 25%, Red Star FC 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
MontpellierRed Star FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min085
Last 15 min5358
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Montpellier win in 44% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Red Star FC win 31%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It was Montpellier 0-0 Red Star FC at half-time; Montpellier had the better of the pressure.
Red Star FC took over after the 46th minute, pinning Montpellier back. Montpellier took the lead on 47 minutes thanks to Laciné Megnan Pave. Just 4 minutes later (51') Red Star FC drew level at 1-1, Saif-Eddine Khaoui on target. Dylan Durivaux saw a second yellow and then red in the 70th minute, leaving Red Star FC short-handed. From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards Montpellier.
Montpellier went 2-1 up in the 88th minute: Mamadou Camara.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 4-8, 3-5 on target.
What it means
The result lifts Montpellier to 2nd with 21 points, up from 3rd. Red Star FC stay 6th on 17 points. Montpellier have now won 4 in a row.
Coming up
Next up for Montpellier: away at Annecy FC on Saturday 31 October. Red Star FC's next match is at home against Nancy Lorraine on 2 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ligue 2
