65' — Fiorentina took the lead: 0-1. Álex Jiménez scored it. 90' — Inter Milan equalised: 1-1. Marcus Thuram scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Inter Milan completed the turnaround: 2-1. It came in the closing minutes. Inter Milan won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Inter MilanDrawFiorentina
Pre-match model estimate: Inter Milan 72%, draw 16%, Fiorentina 12%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Inter Milan win in 72% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and Fiorentina win 12%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 60%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Inter Milan and Fiorentina.
Fiorentina took the lead on 65 minutes thanks to Álex Jiménez, set up by Nicolò Fagioli. Late on, in the 90th minute, Inter Milan drew level at 1-1 through Marcus Thuram. Late on, in the 90th minute, Inter Milan completed the turnaround at 2-1. VAR awarded Inter Milan a penalty in the 96th minute.
Match statistics
Inter Milan had 18 shots (9 on target) to Fiorentina's 3 (2). Corners finished 6-1. Inter Milan produced 54 dangerous attacks to Fiorentina's 34.
The bigger picture
Inter Milan drop from 1st to 2nd on 22 points. Fiorentina stay 18th on 4 points. Inter Milan have now scored in 12 consecutive matches. Fiorentina have now scored in 8 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Inter Milan visit Venezia next, on 28 October in Serie A. Next up for Fiorentina: home to Atalanta on Thursday 29 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
