Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden: the story of the match
10' — Holstein Kiel took the lead: 1-0. Giorgi Kvilitaia scored it. Half time: 1-0.
74' — Holstein Kiel extended the lead: 2-0. Jonas Therkelsen scored it. 86' — Holstein Kiel extended the lead: 3-0. Phil Harres scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Holstein Kiel won 3-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Holstein KielDrawDynamo Dresden
Pre-match model estimate: Holstein Kiel 40%, draw 25%, Dynamo Dresden 35%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Holstein Kiel win in 40% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Dynamo Dresden win 35%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 60%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Holstein Kiel took the lead on 10 minutes thanks to Giorgi Kvilitaia. Half-time: 1-0, Holstein Kiel in front.
Holstein Kiel extended their lead to 2-0 on 74 minutes thanks to Jonas Therkelsen. Holstein Kiel extended their lead to 3-0 on 86 minutes thanks to Phil Harres.
Match statistics
The shot count read 2-6, 2-2 on target. Holstein Kiel won 5 corners, Dynamo Dresden 10. Dynamo Dresden produced 117 dangerous attacks to Holstein Kiel's 74.
Next fixtures
Next up for Holstein Kiel: home to Arminia Bielefeld on Saturday 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
2. Bundesliga
