One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Gamba OsakaKick-off0-0Cerezo Osaka
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Gamba Osaka win in 42% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Cerezo Osaka win 33%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.0 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Goals scored per match: 1.7Goals conceded per match: 1.8
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Cerezo Osaka won 2-3.
Story
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka: the story of the match
11' — Cerezo Osaka took the lead: 0-1. Rikito Inoue scored it. Half time: 0-1.
55' — Gamba Osaka equalised: 1-1. Issam Jebali scored it. 64' — Cerezo Osaka went back in front: 1-2. Hayato Okuda scored it. 74' — Cerezo Osaka extended the lead: 1-3. Pablo Sabbag scored it. 81' — Gamba Osaka pulled one back: 2-3. Eli Adams scored it. Cerezo Osaka won 2-3.
Cerezo Osaka beat Gamba Osaka3-2 in the J1 League at Suita City Football Stadium. It was 0-1 at half-time. Rikito Inoue was our player of the match, rated 6.9 by the ScoreMondo model for Cerezo Osaka. The match was played on Sunday, 8 November 2026 at Suita City Football Stadium in Osaka (matchday 14).
The story of the match
Cerezo Osaka took the lead on 11 minutes thanks to Rikito Inoue. Half-time: 0-1, Cerezo Osaka in front.
Gamba Osaka drew level at 1-1 on 55 minutes thanks to Issam Jebali. Cerezo Osaka went 2-1 up in the 64th minute through Pablo Sabbag. Cerezo Osaka extended their lead to 3-1 in the 74th minute through Hayato Okuda. Gamba Osaka pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 81st minute through Eli Adams.
Match statistics
Corners finished 4-6. The referee showed 6 yellow cards, 2 to Gamba Osaka and 4 to Cerezo Osaka. Dangerous attacks: 67 for Gamba Osaka, 52 for Cerezo Osaka. Gamba Osaka committed 11 fouls to Cerezo Osaka's 11, and the offside count read 3-0.
Gamba Osaka's yellow cards went to Shota Fukuoka in the 38th minute and Eli Adams in the 48th minute. Booked for Cerezo Osaka: Jackson Irvine (35'), Hayato Okuda (39'), Pablo Sabbag (79') and Lucas Fernandes (86').
Who stood out
The best ScoreMondo ratings after the player of the match went to Issam Jebali (Gamba Osaka, 6.8), Pablo Sabbag (Cerezo Osaka, 6.8) and Eli Adams (Gamba Osaka, 6.6). From the Gamba Osaka bench came Eli Adams on 45 minutes, Tsuyoshi Ogashiwa on 75 minutes, Deniz Hümmet on 82 minutes and Shogo Sasaki on 82 minutes, among 5 changes. Cerezo Osaka made 3 changes: Pablo Sabbag for Satoki Uejo (59'), Yota Komi for Yumeki Yokoyama (82') and Kosei Okazawa for Lucas Fernandes (90').
The context
Before kick-off Gamba Osaka were 16th on 12 points and Cerezo Osaka 12th on 14 points. Gamba Osaka came into the match with 1 win and 4 draws from their last 5 matches — unbeaten in 7. Gamba Osaka were held 3-3 by Pohang Steelers in their latest outing. Before kick-off, Cerezo Osaka's last 5 matches had brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Cerezo Osaka lost 4-1 away to Kashima Antlers in their last match. The record between them over the last 4 matches reads 1-1-2 from Gamba Osaka's point of view. The last meeting, in 2026 in the J1 League, went 1-0 to Cerezo Osaka. Those 4 games produced 9 goals, an average of 2.3 per match.
What the result means
Gamba Osaka slip to 18th (12 points), having started the day 16th. Cerezo Osaka climb from 12th to 11th on 17 points. Gamba Osaka's 7-match unbeaten run is over. Cerezo Osaka have now scored in 7 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
