Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FK Pardubice won 1-4.
Story
FK Teplice vs FK Pardubice: the story of the match
1' — FK Pardubice took the lead: 0-1. 1' — FK Pardubice extended the lead: 0-2. 1' — FK Teplice pulled one back: 1-2. Half time: 1-2.
49' — FK Pardubice extended the lead: 1-3. 58' — FK Pardubice extended the lead: 1-4. After 46' the momentum swung to FK Teplice. FK Pardubice won 1-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FK TepliceDrawFK Pardubice
Pre-match model estimate: FK Teplice 38%, draw 25%, FK Pardubice 37%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FK TepliceFK Pardubice
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7868
Last 15 min8173
Recorded from minute 47.
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FK Teplice win in 38% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and FK Pardubice win 37%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%. About 10.5 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 21%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FK Pardubice took the lead on 1 minutes. FK Pardubice extended their lead to 2-0 on 1 minutes. FK Teplice pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 1 minutes. FK Pardubice led 2-1 at the break.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards FK Teplice. FK Pardubice extended their lead to 3-1 on 49 minutes. FK Pardubice extended their lead to 4-1 on 58 minutes.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 5-4, 3-4 on target. Corners finished 8-6. Dangerous attacks: 104 for FK Teplice, 58 for FK Pardubice.
The bigger picture
FK Teplice remain 6th, now with 21 points. FK Pardubice stay 12th on 17 points. FK Pardubice have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. FK Pardubice beat FK Teplice for the first time since 2023.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
First League
