FK Arda Kardzhali vs PFK Levski Sofia: the story of the match
FK Arda Kardzhali started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 23' — FK Arda Kardzhali took the lead: 1-0. P. Bachev scored it. Half time: 1-0.
62' — PFK Levski Sofia equalised: 1-1. Álex Centelles scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to PFK Levski Sofia. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FK Arda KardzhaliDrawPFK Levski Sofia
Pre-match model estimate: FK Arda Kardzhali 15%, draw 25%, PFK Levski Sofia 60%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FK Arda KardzhaliPFK Levski Sofia
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2294
Last 15 min1979
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FK Arda Kardzhali win in 15% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and PFK Levski Sofia win 60%. Average goals 2.2; the most likely score is 0-1 (17%); both teams score in 38%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FK Arda Kardzhali started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. FK Arda Kardzhali took the lead on 23 minutes thanks to P. Bachev, set up by D. Velkovski. It was FK Arda Kardzhali 1-0 PFK Levski Sofia at half-time.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards PFK Levski Sofia. PFK Levski Sofia drew level at 1-1 in the 62nd minute: Álex Centelles.
Match statistics
FK Arda Kardzhali had 3 shots (1 on target) to PFK Levski Sofia's 8 (5). Corners finished 0-8. Dangerous attacks: 60 for PFK Levski Sofia, 29 for FK Arda Kardzhali.
What the result means
FK Arda Kardzhali remain 6th, now with 18 points. PFK Levski Sofia slip to 2nd (29 points), having started the day 1st. PFK Levski Sofia are now unbeaten in 5 matches. Across 10 meetings in our records: 7 wins for PFK Levski Sofia and 3 draws.
Next fixtures
Next up for FK Arda Kardzhali: home to FC Septemvri Sofia on Monday 2 November. PFK Levski Sofia's next match is away to FC Dunav Ruse on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
First League
