Cherno More Varna vs FC Septemvri Sofia: the story of the match
Cherno More Varna started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 15' — Cherno More Varna took the lead: 1-0. G. Lazarov scored it. 26' — Cherno More Varna extended the lead: 2-0. V. Panayotov scored it. Half time: 2-0.
95' — I. Bounaas of Cherno More Varna was sent off. 96' — André Filipe Rio Liberal of FC Septemvri Sofia was sent off. After 46' the momentum swung to Cherno More Varna. After 61' the momentum swung to FC Septemvri Sofia. After 76' the momentum swung to Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Cherno More VarnaDrawFC Septemvri Sofia
Pre-match model estimate: Cherno More Varna 53%, draw 26%, FC Septemvri Sofia 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Cherno More VarnaFC Septemvri Sofia
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min022
Last 15 min2528
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cherno More Varna win in 53% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and FC Septemvri Sofia win 21%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Cherno More Varna – FC Septemvri Sofia match report
The early pressure came from Cherno More Varna, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Cherno More Varna took the lead on 15 minutes thanks to G. Lazarov. Cherno More Varna extended their lead to 2-0 on 26 minutes thanks to V. Panayotov. Half-time: 2-0, Cherno More Varna in front.
Cherno More Varna took over after the 46th minute, pinning FC Septemvri Sofia back. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards FC Septemvri Sofia. FC Septemvri Sofia had a goal ruled out in the 70th minute after a VAR review. Cherno More Varna had a player sent off on 95 minutes: I. Bounaas. FC Septemvri Sofia were a man down from the 96th minute, when André Filipe Rio Liberal was sent off.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 7-5, 3-4 on target. Cherno More Varna won 3 corners, FC Septemvri Sofia 4.
The bigger picture
The result lifts Cherno More Varna to 13th with 9 points, up from 14th. FC Septemvri Sofia drop from 13th to 14th on 8 points. FC Septemvri Sofia have now gone 7 matches without a win.
Next fixtures
Next up for Cherno More Varna: home to Botev Vratsa on Monday 2 November. FC Septemvri Sofia's next match is away to FK Arda Kardzhali on 2 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
First League
