We had a FC Ryukyu win as the most likely outcome.
✓ FC Ryukyu 53%✗ Most likely score 2-1
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FC Ryukyu won 5-2.
Story
FC Ryukyu vs Gainare Tottori: the story of the match
14' — FC Ryukyu took the lead: 1-0. T. Ishiura scored it. Half time: 1-0.
55' — FC Ryukyu extended the lead: 2-0. J. Suzuki scored it. 63' — FC Ryukyu extended the lead: 3-0. K. Ihori scored it. 65' — FC Ryukyu extended the lead: 4-0. K. Sota scored it. 75' — Gainare Tottori pulled one back: 4-1. I. Yoshida scored from the penalty spot. 77' — FC Ryukyu extended the lead: 5-1. Y. Funabashi scored it. 88' — Gainare Tottori pulled one back: 5-2. K. Hombo scored it. It came in the closing minutes. FC Ryukyu won 5-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC RyukyuDrawGainare Tottori
Pre-match model estimate: FC Ryukyu 53%, draw 23%, Gainare Tottori 24%.
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
FC RyukyuKick-off0-0Gainare Tottori
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Ryukyu win in 53% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Gainare Tottori win 24%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 2.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Gainare Tottori were beaten 5-2 by a rampant FC Ryukyu. The half-time score was 1-0. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to FC Ryukyu's J. Suzuki: 7.2. Saturday 31 October, Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium (Okinawa): FC Ryukyu against Gainare Tottori on matchday 14, kick-off 07:00.
How the match unfolded
FC Ryukyu took the lead on 14 minutes thanks to T. Ishiura. Half-time: 1-0, FC Ryukyu in front.
FC Ryukyu extended their lead to 2-0 in the 55th minute through J. Suzuki. FC Ryukyu extended their lead to 3-0 in the 63rd minute through K. Ihori, set up by S. Iwamoto. K. Sota made it 4-0 for FC Ryukyu after 65 minutes, set up by H. Horiuchi. Gainare Tottori pulled one back to make it 4-1 on 75 minutes thanks to I. Yoshida from the penalty spot. Just 2 minutes later (77') FC Ryukyu extended their lead to 5-1, Y. Funabashi on target, set up by Y. Kato.
Gainare Tottori pulled one back to make it 5-2 on 88 minutes thanks to K. Hombo, set up by M. Kaneura.
The statistics
Expected goals (xG) 1.83 – 1.30: FC Ryukyu created the better chances. FC Ryukyu won 3 corners, Gainare Tottori 3. The referee showed 4 yellow cards, 2 to FC Ryukyu and 2 to Gainare Tottori. Gainare Tottori produced 52 dangerous attacks to FC Ryukyu's 35. Fouls: 9 by FC Ryukyu, 11 by Gainare Tottori; offsides 2-2.
Booked for FC Ryukyu: Y. Kato (40') and H. Yoshida (92'). Gainare Tottori's yellow cards went to H. Oshima in the 16th minute and S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden in the 59th minute.
The players
Behind him, T. Ishiura at 7.2, K. Ihori at 7.1 and K. Sota at 7.1 were next in the ScoreMondo ratings. FC Ryukyu made 5 changes: K. Ihori for Y. Tomidokoro (34'), S. Iwamoto for H. Asakawa (56'), K. Sota for F. Takayanagi (56') and Y. Funabashi for T. Ishiura (73'). From the Gainare Tottori bench came T. Kiuchi on 68 minutes, I. Yoshida on 68 minutes, M. Kaneura on 68 minutes and K. Hoshi on 79 minutes, among 5 changes.
The context
Before kick-off, FC Ryukyu's last 5 matches had brought 3 wins and 2 defeats. Last time out, FC Ryukyu beat Nara Club3-1 away. Gainare Tottori came into the match with 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches — 6 without a win. Gainare Tottori were held 0-0 by Kochi United SC in their latest outing. The record between them over the last 9 matches reads 4-1-4 from FC Ryukyu's point of view. When they last met, on 12 July 2025, FC Ryukyu won 1-0. There have been 33 goals in the 9 meetings, 3.7 a game.
The bigger picture
FC Ryukyu have now won 4 in a row. Gainare Tottori have now gone 7 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
