Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Exeter City U21 beat Reading U21 4-3 in Premier League Cup.
Match decisions & VAR
54'Penalty awardedExeter City U21Decision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Exeter City U21 won 4-3.
Story
Exeter City U21 vs Reading U21: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 18' — Reading U21 took the lead: 0-1. 32' — Reading U21 extended the lead: 0-2. 43' — Exeter City U21 pulled one back: 1-2. 45' — Exeter City U21 equalised: 2-2. Half time: 2-2.
55' — Exeter City U21 completed the turnaround: 3-2. 75' — Reading U21 equalised: 3-3. 88' — Exeter City U21 completed the turnaround: 4-3. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Exeter City U21. After 61' the momentum swung to Reading U21. Exeter City U21 won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Exeter City U21DrawReading U21
Pre-match model estimate: Exeter City U21 45%, draw 22%, Reading U21 33%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Exeter City U21Reading U21
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1292
Last 15 min3970
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Exeter City U21 win in 45% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Reading U21 win 33%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Reading U21 took the lead on 18 minutes. Reading U21 extended their lead to 2-0 on 32 minutes. Exeter City U21 pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 43 minutes. Exeter City U21 drew level at 2-2 on 45 minutes. Half-time: 2-2 between Exeter City U21 and Reading U21.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Exeter City U21. Exeter City U21 completed the turnaround at 3-2 on 55 minutes. Reading U21 took over after the 61st minute, pinning Exeter City U21 back. Reading U21 drew level at 3-3 on 75 minutes. Exeter City U21 completed the turnaround at 4-3 on 88 minutes.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 5-8, 4-5 on target. Corners finished 2-7.
What the result means
Exeter City U21 have now scored in 5 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League Cup
