One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Cruzeiro ECKick-off0-0EC Bahia
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cruzeiro EC win in 54% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and EC Bahia win 24%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 60%. About 12.2 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Goals scored per match: 1.5Goals conceded per match: 1.6
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Cruzeiro EC won 3-2.
Story
Cruzeiro EC vs EC Bahia: the story of the match
32' — EC Bahia took the lead: 0-1. Cristian Olivera scored it. 45' — Cruzeiro EC equalised: 1-1. Kaio Jorge scored it. Half time: 1-1.
69' — Cruzeiro EC completed the turnaround: 2-1. Bruno Rodrigues scored it. 86' — Cruzeiro EC extended the lead: 3-1. Kaio Jorge scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — EC Bahia pulled one back: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. Cruzeiro EC won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Cruzeiro EC recovered from going behind and won 3-2 against EC Bahia. Cruzeiro EC owed a lot to Kaio Jorge, who struck twice. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to Cruzeiro EC's Keny Arroyo: 9.5. The match was played on Friday, 6 November 2026 at Estadio Mineirão (matchday 34).
Key moments
Cristian Olivera opened the scoring for EC Bahia after 32 minutes, set up by Rodrigo Nestor. Cruzeiro EC drew level at 1-1 in the 45th minute through Kaio Jorge. It was Cruzeiro EC 1-1 EC Bahia at half-time.
After a review on 62 minutes, Cruzeiro EC were given a penalty. Cruzeiro EC completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 69th minute through Bruno Rodrigues, set up by Keny Arroyo. Cruzeiro EC extended their lead to 3-1 on 86 minutes thanks to Kaio Jorge, set up by Lucas Romero. Just 4 minutes later (90') EC Bahia pulled one back to make it 3-2.
The statistics
Cruzeiro EC had 9 shots (8 on target) to EC Bahia's 10 (6). Corners finished 5-7. The referee showed 5 yellow cards, 3 to Cruzeiro EC and 2 to EC Bahia. Cruzeiro EC committed 13 fouls to EC Bahia's 11.
Cruzeiro EC's yellow cards went to Bruno Rodrigues in the 70th minute and Jonathan Jesus in the 76th minute. Booked for EC Bahia: Nicolás Acevedo (19') and Caio Alexandre (69').
Ratings and substitutions
The best ScoreMondo ratings after the player of the match went to Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro EC, 9.4), Lucas Romero (Cruzeiro EC, 8.6) and Luciano Juba (EC Bahia, 7.8). From the Cruzeiro EC bench came Matías Viña on 5 minutes, Kauã Moraes Silva on 82 minutes, Matheus Henrique on 82 minutes and Marquinhos on 82 minutes, among 5 changes. EC Bahia made 5 changes: Jean Lucas for Nicolás Acevedo (57'), Caio Alexandre for Rodrigo Nestor (65'), Michel Araújo for Erick (65') and Erick Pulga for Everton Ribeiro (65').
The context
Before kick-off Cruzeiro EC were 3rd on 57 points and EC Bahia 6th on 53 points. Cruzeiro EC came into the match with 4 wins and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches — scoring in 11 straight games. Their most recent game was a 1-0 win over Atletico MG for Cruzeiro EC. Before kick-off, EC Bahia's last 5 matches had brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Last time out, EC Bahia beat Sao Paulo FC3-2 at home. In 5 previous meetings, Cruzeiro EC have won 3, EC Bahia 1, and 1 has been drawn. The last meeting, in 2026 in the Brasileiro Serie A, ended in a 2-1 win for Cruzeiro EC. Those 5 games produced 16 goals, an average of 3.2 per match. Rafael Rodrigo Klein was the referee, averaging 4.8 yellow cards per match across 89 matches in our records.
The bigger picture
Cruzeiro EC remain 3rd, now with 60 points. EC Bahia stay 6th on 53 points. That is 4 straight wins for Cruzeiro EC.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
