39' — EC Bahia took the lead: 0-1. Luciano Juba scored it. 45' — Neymar of Santos SP was sent off. Half time: 0-1.
90' — Santos SP equalised: 1-1. Luan Peres scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Santos SP win in 53% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and EC Bahia win 25%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%. About 11.1 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It finished 1-1 between Santos SP and EC Bahia at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). It was 0-1 at half-time.
The story of the match
The officials disallowed a Santos SP goal on 11 minutes. EC Bahia took the lead on 39 minutes thanks to Luciano Juba. Santos SP were a man down from the 45th minute, when Neymar was sent off for a second yellow card. Half-time: 0-1, EC Bahia in front.
Santos SP had a goal ruled out in the 82nd minute. Late on, in the 90th minute, Santos SP drew level at 1-1 through Luan Peres.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 17-7, 13-1 on target. Corners finished 14-8. Dangerous attacks: 63 for Santos SP, 36 for EC Bahia.
What it means
Santos SP have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Santos SP, 3 wins for EC Bahia and 6 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Brasileiro Serie A
